that was like the second half of march, so now it's this april angst if you will, cheryl as we come into tech earnings what their outlook and guidance looks like going into here to q 3 and q 4 because those are the areas where we're likely to see the biggest bounce back once they hit firm lows. the great reopening trade in our opinion was march. kind of looking at what i would also say is maybe the tail end of this great reopening trade. Of parse that out and find your own reason to predict the next recession, but really the banks are in good shape, so we're actually looking at financials here, cheryl. financials are really interesting aspect of the market right here, cheryl because to your point, the interest rate curve depending on whether you look at threes versus sixes as far asism is months or look at the three versus tens, it's kind of crazy how you can kind > scott what are you looking at? > i agree with phil. normal means normal earnings growth and normal earnings growth means a positive s&p 500 not negative so we're going to get through some of this volatility in the next few weeks, and hope for a resolution between ukraine and russia and i think the market is prepared for a fed hike and the earnings season could give it the boost we need, and more positive than negative. you're looking at more than half the s&p 500 as a buy rating right now 57% is the highest number in 10 years. do you think we're going to see anything to get the market out of this fed rut especially the banks who normally benefit from higher rates? > i do. great to see you both as alwaysĪnd phil i'll start with you i just mentioned this with bob picking up on earnings. i want to bring in now advisor group's phil blancoto and kings view wealth and fox business contributor scott martin. > inflation and interest rates > cheryl: that is the topic of the day for sure and that has been putting pressure on the markets bob doll, great to see see you as always thanks for your perspective. > cheryl: real quick, give me two things moving in the wrong direction. the uncertainty levels are high and some things are moving in the wrong direction. i don't think we're going to get a big rally until we get through all the issues we've been talking about. higher inflation, higher rates and i think that dance is going to mean that to make money this year, when the screen is red and i don't feel good and my stomach hurts i need to buy some stocks, and when it feels like putting my feet up on the table because the screen is green, i probably need to sell some things. We've got this tailwind of an okay economy, an okay earnings, but we've got the headwind of what we've been talking about. rates are low, real rates even as they raise rates are still negative. > cheryl: let's get into that then because there is a lot more talk about a recession in the second half of the year but you don't think that's going to happen? > i don't think so because of what i just said. we'll have a recession, but not today or tomorrow. i'm not disagreeing with you, but it's partly like oh, my goodness the fed raised rates aren't we going into a recession tomorrow morning? no they had so much easy money and remember monetary policy and fiscal policy operate on the economy with a long lag so some of the good news is still impacting the economy, so i think recession talk is premature. now, to put it in perspective and try to be the optimist for a second, remember rates have moved from like zero to some still-low number. what is the ripple down effect of that? > yup, free money is over. Credit card rates and basically the end of cheap money as americans, and as businesses know it.
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